A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
